The Dutch Republic in the 1630s was the richest country in Europe. Amsterdam's merchant class had surplus wealth and nothing predictable to invest it in. Then someone discovered tulips.

Tulips weren't native to Europe — they'd arrived from the Ottoman Empire only decades earlier. A rare variety called Semper Augustus, streaked red on white, became a status symbol among the wealthy. Then ordinary varieties became status symbols too. Then the status itself became the asset.

A futures market emerged. You weren't buying bulbs anymore — you were buying contracts for bulbs that didn't exist yet. Prices doubled every few weeks. At the peak in January 1637, a single bulb of the 'Viceroy' variety sold for 2,500 guilders. A master carpenter earned 250 guilders a year. People mortgaged houses to buy tulips.

Then on February 3rd, 1637, a routine auction in Haarlem failed. No buyers showed up. Panic spread in days. Prices fell 99% within a week. Thousands of merchants were ruined, thousands of contracts went unenforceable, and Dutch courts spent years sorting out the wreckage.

Tulip Mania is sometimes called the first speculative bubble, which isn't quite true — earlier bubbles existed in Roman real estate and Japanese rice markets. But it was the first one well-documented enough for economists to study centuries later, and the pattern it established is eerily consistent. A novel asset. Social signalling. A financial instrument that abstracts away from reality. Exponential prices. A single failed auction that breaks the spell.

Every bubble since 1637 has followed the same script.